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November 09, 2004

Intel Holiday Season

Every year about this time (or a little earlier) I invest in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).  Summertime blues run this stock down, but Christmas buying patterns get investors re-energized.  This year the low was at the end of September (under $20) and now the stock is already over $23.  I bought at above $20 but have already realized more than a 10% gain in less than two months. 

Looking at 2003, the low was around $14 in September and peaked at $22 or so -- a tremendous 2 month run up.

But its hard to know when to exit.  In 2003 a decline began in December that continued into the new year.  But in 2002 the increas continued for another $10 in that last month.  Earnings expectations tell the story hear.  In 2002 earnings were quite strong, but 2003 very weak.  Analysts will be no help for 2004 -- the range is from $0.26 to $0.39 --- bracketing the $0.33 actual in 4Q '03

$23 may be too late to enter this stock -- but if you are a current holder, keep your ear tuned for murmers on holiday sales and get ready to pull the trigger if it starts to look dissapointing.

November 9, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink


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