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November 17, 2004

INTC starting to run?

Intel (INTC) has moved to a fresh three month high today, and approaches its 200 day ema -- is this the beginning of a run that will take us into the new year?  2002 brought this upside, and Caris & Company seems to agree that history could be repeating itself.  Caris upgraded the stock today to a "Buy" -- just a day after Wedbush Morgan downgraded to "Hold" and two days after First Albany downgraded to an "Underperform." For good measure, Wells initiated coverage on the 12th with a "Sell" rating.

So what use are the analysts when they disagree so wildly?  Price targets for INTC now range from $15 on the low end to $38 on the high end.  One thing to look at are the so-called "Star Analysts" (Yahoo's name) rated by their accuracy in predicting EPS.  8 such analysts (all ranked at 4 stars) cover Intel.  Here they are:

  • Lynch, Ben -- Deutsche Bank Securities         
  • Luke, Tim -- Lehman Brothers
  • Duley, David -- Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. 
  • Glavin, Charlie -- Needham & Company
  • Rottinghaus, Kevin -- FTN Midwest Research      
  • Gomberg, Eric -- Thomas Weisel Partners         
  • Shankar, Krishna -- JMP Securities         
  • Wu, David -- Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc.

What we haven't seen yet from any of these gentleman is an opinion on Intel's announced plan to double its cash dividen and repurchase 500 million shares of common stock.  These are both good news for investors.  In addition the Intel Board elected Paul Otellini Intel CEO, succeeding Craig Barrett.  This is also good news for the company.

November 17, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink


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