December 02, 2004

INTC moving higher

Nice to see shares of Intel (INTC) have rebounded since the end of November.  Perhaps we'll see that end of year rally after all. 

Other tech stocks I've been following -- Google (GOOG) an unbelievable $181 today.  And NOK which I was happy to ride for a healthy 25% gain, continuing up at $16.65.  Nokia fundamentals are sound -- too much attention has been paid to their loss of market share and not enough attention to their increasing unit shipments.

December 2, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 30, 2004

Investment Philosophy

As I watch Intel (INTC) decline, I am reminded of the many perspectives on how to think about investing.  As readers of this site know, I was enthusiastically hoping for a repeat of Intel's bang up performance in the December 2001 and 2003 time frame... and hoping we wouldn't see a sell of as we did in December 2002.  So now that we have had an end of November dip... whats the right investor approach?  Fold and take a small win off of the table?  Or hold, hoping for a longer term gain?

For me, it really depends upon the fundamentals, although I have also learned not to "fight the tape."  If the market wants to be irrational in the short term, it will and there is nothing to do about it.  So I typically find some stop-loss point to jump out, expecting to get back into good stocks at some lower plateau.

But if that broad based market sell of doesn't come and we just see stock poke around, I will hold quality like INTC for the long run.  Even if it doesn't go up in the near term (between now and the New Year), I expect that it will go up over the next 12 months.  And given the benefits of long term capital gains tax relief, holding for that minimum period can mean a significant increase in retained earnings...

So fundamentals are going to keep me in this Intel position, despite the tape currently going against my earlier bullish hopes.

November 30, 2004 in Philosophy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 18, 2004

Intel Sees Improved Performance

Not to become an Intel (INTC) only blog -- but I tend to focus on a small number of stocks, getting to know the trends, and then playing those trends.  As predicted, Intel is now running, and at $24.5+ has surpassed the 200 day EMA.  With the news today that Intel sees 'improved performance' in the first half of '05 I am hoping that we'll see a repeat of the 2002 end-of-year bull run for INTC.  Could be another 50% of upside in this stock.

November 18, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 17, 2004

INTC starting to run?

Intel (INTC) has moved to a fresh three month high today, and approaches its 200 day ema -- is this the beginning of a run that will take us into the new year?  2002 brought this upside, and Caris & Company seems to agree that history could be repeating itself.  Caris upgraded the stock today to a "Buy" -- just a day after Wedbush Morgan downgraded to "Hold" and two days after First Albany downgraded to an "Underperform." For good measure, Wells initiated coverage on the 12th with a "Sell" rating.

So what use are the analysts when they disagree so wildly?  Price targets for INTC now range from $15 on the low end to $38 on the high end.  One thing to look at are the so-called "Star Analysts" (Yahoo's name) rated by their accuracy in predicting EPS.  8 such analysts (all ranked at 4 stars) cover Intel.  Here they are:

  • Lynch, Ben -- Deutsche Bank Securities         
  • Luke, Tim -- Lehman Brothers
  • Duley, David -- Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. 
  • Glavin, Charlie -- Needham & Company
  • Rottinghaus, Kevin -- FTN Midwest Research      
  • Gomberg, Eric -- Thomas Weisel Partners         
  • Shankar, Krishna -- JMP Securities         
  • Wu, David -- Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc.

What we haven't seen yet from any of these gentleman is an opinion on Intel's announced plan to double its cash dividen and repurchase 500 million shares of common stock.  These are both good news for investors.  In addition the Intel Board elected Paul Otellini Intel CEO, succeeding Craig Barrett.  This is also good news for the company.

November 17, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 09, 2004

Intel Holiday Season

Every year about this time (or a little earlier) I invest in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC).  Summertime blues run this stock down, but Christmas buying patterns get investors re-energized.  This year the low was at the end of September (under $20) and now the stock is already over $23.  I bought at above $20 but have already realized more than a 10% gain in less than two months. 

Looking at 2003, the low was around $14 in September and peaked at $22 or so -- a tremendous 2 month run up.

But its hard to know when to exit.  In 2003 a decline began in December that continued into the new year.  But in 2002 the increas continued for another $10 in that last month.  Earnings expectations tell the story hear.  In 2002 earnings were quite strong, but 2003 very weak.  Analysts will be no help for 2004 -- the range is from $0.26 to $0.39 --- bracketing the $0.33 actual in 4Q '03

$23 may be too late to enter this stock -- but if you are a current holder, keep your ear tuned for murmers on holiday sales and get ready to pull the trigger if it starts to look dissapointing.

November 9, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 23, 2004


Who isn't amazed at Google's performance over the past few days?

Not many of the naysayers are admitting that they were wrong, so let me take the opportunity to do so.

I was wrong.

But how many people believe that the stock is going up from here? Or very far up from here?

OK, I am not going to short it (unlimited downside...) but I wouldn't bet on it either. Many good returns to be found elsewhere.

I wise trader once told me "don't bet against the tape" -- You can try to be smart about these things, and betting that Google's IPO wouldn't go well might have been "smart" -- but the market has its own logic and that logic says the folks that bet on the IPO have made a bunch of money.

I'd be taking it off the table by now, if I were them...

August 23, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 03, 2004

Why Invest in Funds?

The Motley fool carries this story on Franklin's recent settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Fool writes

The SEC found that Franklin, like so many others in the $7.6 trillion fund industry, abetted market timing, a technically legal but highly unethical practice that allows some clients to rapidly trade in and out of funds, effectively stealing from long-term investors who would typically pay big penalties for early redemptions.
But the settlement is a joke! No concessions, no agreement to change business practices, and a measly $50 million in fines. They didn't even have to admit wrongdoing! So why should we, the average investor, trust our money to mutual funds?

August 3, 2004 in Mutual Funds | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 28, 2004

Jim Cramer agrees that Google

Jim Cramer agrees that Google has ruined its IPO. Now the only question is, why would they want to do that? Here are my comments back to Cramer:

Pretty smart people over there -- maybe they felt like the NEEDED to "ruin" their IPO. Maybe they worried about ridiculous amounts of speculation and a huge up and down swing in the first few days of trading. Maybe they decided that the only way to avoid this was to do everything they could do to make their own IPO as unappetizing as possible...

but I agree with your scorn for two classes of stock

July 28, 2004 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 27, 2004

Don't Bid on Google IPO...

Dan Gillmor, of the San Jose Mercury News, writes today in his blog on why he wouldn't bid on Google's IPO. He writes, in part

There are growing questions in some circles, meanwhile, about Google's basic trustworthiness. It has already alienated some advertisers, for example, and operates with cult-like secrecy. If the company loses people's trust -- which is a key asset -- it could lose much of its value.
To justify bidding at the prices Google hopes to get, you need to believe the converse of the risk factors. You need to assume that almost everything will go right in the next few years. It may, but that is one powerful collection of assumptions.
Given the unique dutch auction pricing method, the issue is almost sure to be priced such that people willing to pay the most will get their shares... so it is highly unlikely that anyone will be left to bid the issue higher. This alone is enough of a reason to avoid the auction process, aside from Gillmor's concerns of the company's trustworthiness. If you really want to own this stock, buy it after it has had a chance to settle after the IPO. It will almost certainly go down before it goes up again.

July 27, 2004 in Tech Stocks | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 25, 2004

Stock Screening: MSN Money

MSN Money provides one of the best free stock screening tools. You can also generate your own stock charts, stock quotes, and do background research on companies.

July 25, 2004 in Tools | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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